Candidates 2022 - Preview

Introduction
The Candidates is coming! No other chess event provides such a mix of high-quality chess, entertainment and drama. It is a tournament in which finishing second has the same outcome as finishing last, and maybe finishing last is preferable so you don’t regret the missed chances! To become world champion, you must demonstrate superior skill not once, not twice but three times:
Step One – qualify for the Candidates
This is a major hurdle that some strong contenders will not clear in every cycle. For example, nearly half the top 10 according to live rating will not be playing in Madrid.
Step Two – win the Candidates
Easier said than done! There are legendary world champions like Mikhail Tal, Anatoly Karpov and Gary Kasparov who managed at the first try. It is more common to need multiple attempts, like Bobby Fischer or Magnus Carlsen.
Step Three – defeat the Champion
King Magnus has defeated all four previous challengers from a spectrum of age groups – older, the same, and younger. Winning the candidates is not enough – a further fierce struggle with Magnus awaits, unless he gets bored with our royal game.

Joe Biden
The eight Candidates include the three previous winners – Sergey Karjakin, Fabiano Caruana and Ian Nepomniachtchi. Can one of them make a supreme effort of willpower and motivation to launch a second title bid? Joe Biden showed that you should keep trying and never give up. In chess, Vassily Smyslov won two Candidates tournaments back-to-back in 1953 and 1956, with a combined amazing performance of +15 =29 -2. In the 1960s and 1970s, when FIDE switched to Candidates matches, Boris Spassky and Viktor Korchnoi managed this feat too. Sadly, the unprecedented presence of three challengers will no longer occur in Madrid, as Karjakin’s inflammatory posts on the Russia-Ukraine conflict led to his disqualification.

Terminator
One level below the Joe Bidens’ is those who keep coming back like the Terminator but have yet to win. Paul Keres played in every cycle between 1950-1965 and came tantalisingly close, earning the nickname ‘Paul the Second’. Others who qualified for multiple Candidates include Efim Geller and Lajos Portisch. In Madrid, we will see three such players. Teimour Radjabov participated in the knockout world championships in 2002 and 2004 and the Candidates in 2011 and 2013. Hikaru Nakamura was a Candidate in 2016, and Ding Liren in 2018 and 2020. These three have valuable experience of the pressurised atmosphere of the Candidates, and not having won before, may be more driven than a Joe Biden.

Cinderella
In every cycle, there are debutants to the ball, and Madrid is no exception. In order of decreasing age, we have Richard Rapport, Jan-Kryzstof Duda and Alireza Firouzja. Three ambitious grandmasters who are significantly younger than Magnus and may rekindle his enthusiasm for a sixth world title match.

And the winner is ...
Anyone is capable of winning! In my opinion, Ding Liren is objectively the strongest and he’s my #1 pick. Ding has recovered from the disastrous Covid disruption that ruined his previous Candidates. This time, he did not qualify but replaced Karjakin, and will want to make the most of the golden opportunity. Ding has defeated Magnus in both classical and faster time controls and will be a worthy match opponent. My alternative dark horse choice is Duda. He is in good form currently, stable under pressure and willing to take risks – all desirable qualities for this tournament.

Irresistible force
There are three others that I consider ‘streak players’ - Caruana, Nepomniachtchi and Firouzja. If they start well, they could build up a commanding lead and outpace the rest. Recall the FIDE world championship in 2005, held under an identical 8-man, double round robin format. In the first half, Veselin Topalov streaked ahead with 6.5/7 (even leading to accusations of computer assistance). He drew every game in the second half, but the early sprint was sufficient to finish 1.5 points ahead of Anand.

Candidate in name
While I’m happy to be proven wrong, I don’t feel the remaining three are serious contenders for first place – Radjabov, Nakamura and Rapport. The first two have not played much recently and are perhaps a little too solid in their style. Rapport, on the other hand, may have played too much and had to pull out of Norway Chess. His slightly unusual openings may not be optimal at the highest levels.

A tournament of two halves
It is a double round robin and yet, the two halves are not equal. Look at previous editions and the similar 2005/2007 world championships and you will see the leader or co-leader at the halfway mark was the eventual winner. So, a strong start is critical for success! It will come down to who can convert their better positions while doggedly defending when necessary. Magnus is a rare Candidates winner with two losses- none or a maximum of one is more typical.

Will he, or won’t he?
Regardless of the outcome, there is speculation on whether Magnus will defend his title. However, if history is anything to go by, the words and actions of world champions are often divergent. Fischer, for example, wished to reign as world champion longer than Emmanuel Lasker, but did not play a single game after gaining the title! I believe Magnus will play the challenger - his place in chess history is assured but the allure of another record by winning six matches in a row will be too tempting.